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Mrs May is extremely unlikely to get what her right-wing supporters are demanding as their price for supporting her Withdrawal Agreement for the reason s explained here. This would be a fundamental threat to the EU. There is however a real danger of a fudged agreement to defer the difficulties until after we have left.
If we are to avoid a fudge over the backstop, I think we need to point out that agreeing to the Withdrawal Agreement does nothing to bring to an end the debates surrounding our future relationship with the EU and if we leave the Customs Union and Single Market, we are creating a border where none exists today. On the other hand, staying inside the Single Market and the Customs Union delivers no independence from the EU’s rules while losing our current rights to a seat at the table where they are made.
A People’s Vote must be different from the last referendum. The vote in 2016 has been hugely divisive. Compromises are not available. We are either inside or or outside the European Union. As the debate has continued over the Withdrawal Agreement attitudes have hardened. Leavers are not prepared to accept compromise in our ability to strike new trade deals with the rest of the world to preserve a closer trading relationship with those geographically closer and currently more important. Nor have they recognised the importance of safeguarding the Northern Ireland peace process if that means accepting constraints on our perceived national (English) sovereignty.
The analysis hones in on three fundamental downsides to the deal. First, promises made during the referendum have not been kept - indeed they cannot be kept because they were contradictory. This is not what people voted for. Second, this is a much worse deal than the current deal we have as members of the EU. And third, this vague deal leaves so much up in the air that we’ll be stuck negotiating Brexit for years to come - a “Brexternity” stretching out in front of us.
The document then shows how each of these problems will disrupt so many things: our trade, economy, security, sovereignty, global influence, rights, the NHS and the future of our young people.
If you have some time to spare you can help the campaign for a People’s Vote by joining in local radio phone-ins to present our case.